Lieberman-Warner and House Select Committee

Stephanie Herring, PhD , a science policy advisor /ACS fellow for Congressman Ed Markey ,in his capacity as Chairman of the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming , spoke at the Weston Public Library at 7 p.m. February 13th. Dr. Herring focussed her discussion on the Lieberman-Warner Bill in Washington to address climate change and promote energy independence. This bill has emerged from committee and appears to be the basic structure around which future debates will be centered. Language from other bills will be inserted if and as appropriate. The event was sponsored by the Weston Climate Group. I was originally scheduled to be in Maine for a call-in program about Wind energy, but was recovering from a bout of the flu and could not engage in an 11-hour junket. Two colleagues carried through on the Maine engagement, and freed me to spend two hours on this event.

Part of Stephanie's involvement is identifying the impacts of global warming on people, a topic near and dear to my heart. Trained in the health sciences, Stephanie could be focussing on being a doctor, but one of the biggest public health issues is in fact these impacts. A common attitude is that people will adapt to whatever climate changes occur, but that is not true. If heat waves are a degree or a few degrees hotter, many more people will die. If there are more severe storms, there will be much more property damage and dislocation, and again more people will die. This important work is almost surely not properly considered in Lieberman-Warner. Stephanie's work will help bring it properly in to play.

"Lieberman-Warner" (Senate Bill # 2191) can be found in its latest version http://www.thomas.gov/. A search under 2191 may not yield a hit, so it may be necessary to search under Lieberman or Warner. Its sections are below my comments.

Thomas.gov is the best place to access the most recent versions of bills. It is updated more frequently than individual senators' web sites.

Bingamon-Specter is not out of committee, and probably won't make it out, indicating at this point that it will be used only to extract added language to update Lieberman-Warner.

The Bill charges the EPA with designing and operating systems for implementing management of GreenHouse Gases (GHG). There is to be a Greenhouse Gas Registry with an advisory board. All information is to be public, with electronic reporting and audits for verification. I asked whether this was similar to the Inventories that many corporations are beginning to perform and publish on the web; the answer was "yes." An issue being debated is what entities to regulate in various sectors of the economy. There are also some problems with this provision. The legislation also depends on EPA leadership for implementation. This means that the implementation will be politicized to a certain extent, a concern for those of us who view global warming as a non-political issue that can be made political to the detriment of all. Additionally, there is nothing in Bush's budget for rulemaking, indicating that there is a shortfall of commitment to this legislation.

The Bill proposes what is basically a cap-and-trade system. There is to be a penalty for over-emitting: $200 per ton of CO2 over your allowance. Legislators may consider something like 3 times the vaue of carbon on the market. The legislation aims to curb 85% to 95% of our emissions by focussing on large businesses, but the initial legislation has some holes in it. Perhaps this is reasonable, if not good. Since "small businesses" would be exempt from this legislation, the logic would be that the huge task of setting up a system could be done with a relatively small sample of entities, making it more feasible. Also, small businesses do not have the resources to deal with the set-up process. Once the system is set up, it could be extended to small businesses. Of course a company that has 400-500 people is not what a lot of us would call a small business, so there is a potential or actual hole there. For example, with the fragmentation of the electric power industry, there may be major polluters that generate electricity with coal or oil and yet qualify for the small business exemption. Meanwhile the high employment part of the industry is in distribution, which would have a comparatively low carbon footprint with or without the legislation.

So there is the big question: What holes does this legislation leave open?
Then there is also another question that emerges: What if this legislation does not tackle the challenge aggressively enough? What if we cannot afford those holes? What if the problem is bigger and more pressing that we thought it was? There is already evidence that the researchers and their models are too conservative in their predictions. Additionally, as Stephanie pointed out, when researchers find that they do not know how to include methane from thawed permafrost in their models, they simply ignore it.

Agriculture represents a very challenging and ambiguous area for the legislation because it proves difficult to know what the carbon footprint is for agriculture, forestry and land use. Stephanie was familiar with the recent research out of Princeton that reconsidered the boundaries for evaluating the net carbon footprint for corn-ethanol. This indicates that reliance on such ethanol increases the carbon in the atmosphere. Is this really all that surprising when we consider the complications and demands of large scale agriculture? I found myself itching to tell the story of how agriculture is now heavily dependent upon petro-chemicals. When I visited an ancestral homestead in Minnesota some years ago, I stood next to the gravesite in the corner of the 40 acres. It was at the level of my eyes as I stood at the level of the cultivated land. The message is that the topsoil has been eroded by wind and water; we have mined out the wealth that was in that deep Midwestern topsoil. We need to shed our illusions about argiculture, petroleum, and carbon.

There is to be a Carbon Market Efficiency Board with 5 members of both parties appointed by the sitting President serving for 15 year terms to insulate them from politics. When the price of carbon reaches the point of impacting our economy, this board can adjust the numbers in the system to ameliorate the effect. It is indeed reasonable to have some sort of mechanism like this. Yet it could be abused. I again raised a question. Why are we so worried about a point or two of economic growth when our entire society and way of life are at stake? Because of this, it will be very important to select good people to this Board, and to make sure that they have the tools and the advice necessary to do their job well. It is perhaps a little like the Federal Reserve Bank in its subtle but considerable power. In the present, with a Bush administration that remains largely committed to a high carbon footprint, early passing of this Bill would then enable Bush to subvert the legislation by appointing troglodytes as Advisors.

Allocation addresses who gets to emit the actual carbon that is emitted. The U.S. is attempting to learn from the Europe's debacle that resulted from giving away all the allowances, which were actually worth a great deal. European energy companies had a windfall profit, for which consumers paid higher rates. Instead, the legislation calls for 26.5% of the allowances to be auctioned in 2012. The remainder are to be given away. I cannot comment at this point on the prudency of this approach, but the question does arise: Why not auction off all allowances, and let market forces play out. Isn't this what Conservatives have always argued for in the public forum, but now that they can get a government dole to their advantage, they embrace the dole rather than their own principles?

Fossil fuel fired electric plants are to receive 19% of the free allowances, while 10% go to energy intensive industries such as steel and cement. 5% go to organizations that have already done things to significantly reduce their carbon footprint. And so forth. I raised this question: If the fossil fuel-based industry is already getting $12B in subidies from the Feds, then why should they get another 19% free allowance to keep the cost of fossil-fuel-based electricity down? A penny or two per kiloWatt hour makes the difference between being competitive and not competitive, and thus the difference between building more fossil fuel plants for electric generation, and alternative energy plants for electric generation. This gift creates an immense government bias in favor of the fossil fuels whose consumption we must reduce, and against the wind, solar and alternative energy approaches whose consumption we must foster.

At the end I asked Stephanie the question that, before her talk, I had warned her would come. I discussed my previous blog entry, and work at MIT that looks at the uncertainties in the models. The spread in the models gives a peak of about 4 degrees Centrigrade as the temperature rise as of 2100, but with consideration of uncertainties and data error, that peak could go much higher. With Ravelo's finding that the Pliocene had temperatures 4 to 9 degrees higher than now with similar carbon in the atmosphere, and measured GHG concentrations already higher than predicted by the models, the question might be "How fast will the global temperatures rise to Pliocene levels or higher?" It would seem likely that excessive moderation right now might be a mistake. Yet Lieberman-Warner assumes a middle-of-the-models challenge and seeks to ameliorate that. What if the challenge is much greater than that? Isn't it more prudent to tackle this problem aggressively? Then if we find we have created slack, we can back off in our efforts? Cannot we learn from the McKinsey Report, implement in the right way, grow our economy in a green direction, and profit economically as a society?

Readers may want to check out the select committee's website at http://globalwarming.house.gov/.

S.2191
America's Climate Security Act of 2007 (Introduced in Senate)
BeginningOctober 18, 2007
SECTION 1. SHORT TITLE; TABLE OF CONTENTS.
Sec. 1. Short title; table of contents.
SEC. 2. FINDINGS.
SEC. 3. PURPOSES.
TITLE I--CAPPING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONSSubtitle A--Tracking Emissions
SEC. 1101. PURPOSE.
SEC. 1102. DEFINITIONS.
SEC. 1103. REPORTING REQUIREMENTS.
SEC. 1104. DATA QUALITY AND VERIFICATION.
SEC. 1105. FEDERAL GREENHOUSE GAS REGISTRY.
SEC. 1106. ENFORCEMENT.Subtitle B--Reducing Emissions
SEC. 1201. EMISSION ALLOWANCE ACCOUNT.
SEC. 1202. COMPLIANCE OBLIGATION.
SEC. 1203. PENALTY FOR NONCOMPLIANCE.TITLE II--MANAGING AND CONTAINING COSTS EFFICIENTLYSubtitle A--Trading
SEC. 2101. SALE, EXCHANGE, AND RETIREMENT OF EMISSION ALLOWANCES.
SEC. 2102. NO RESTRICTION ON TRANSACTIONS.
SEC. 2103. ALLOWANCE TRANSFER SYSTEM.
SEC. 2104. ALLOWANCE TRACKING SYSTEM.Subtitle B--Banking
SEC. 2201. INDICATION OF CALENDAR YEAR.
SEC. 2202. EFFECT OF TIME.Subtitle C--Borrowing
SEC. 2301. REGULATIONS.
SEC. 2302. TERM.
SEC. 2303. REPAYMENT WITH INTEREST.Subtitle D--Offsets
SEC. 2401. OUTREACH INITIATIVE ON REVENUE ENHANCEMENT FOR AGRICULTURAL PRODUCERS.
SEC. 2402. ESTABLISHMENT OF DOMESTIC OFFSET PROGRAM.
SEC. 2403. ELIGIBLE AGRICULTURAL AND FORESTRY OFFSET PROJECT TYPES.
SEC. 2404. PROJECT INITIATION AND APPROVAL.
SEC. 2405. OFFSET VERIFICATION AND ISSUANCE OF ALLOWANCES FOR AGRICULTURAL AND FORESTRY PROJECTS.
SEC. 2406. TRACKING OF REVERSALS FOR SEQUESTRATION PROJECTS.
SEC. 2407. EXAMINATIONS.
SEC. 2408. TIMING AND THE PROVISION OF OFFSET ALLOWANCES.
SEC. 2409. OFFSET REGISTRY.
SEC. 2410. ENVIRONMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS.
SEC. 2411. PROGRAM REVIEW.Subtitle E--International Credits
SEC. 2501. USE OF INTERNATIONAL ALLOWANCES OR CREDITS.
SEC. 2502. REGULATIONS.
SEC. 2503. FACILITY CERTIFICATION.Subtitle F--Carbon Market Efficiency Board
SEC. 2601. PURPOSES.
SEC. 2602. ESTABLISHMENT OF CARBON MARKET EFFICIENCY BOARD.
SEC. 2603. DUTIES.
SEC. 2604. POWERS.
SEC. 2605. ESTIMATE OF COSTS TO ECONOMY OF LIMITING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS.TITLE III--ALLOCATING AND DISTRIBUTING ALLOWANCESSubtitle A--Early Auctions
SEC. 3101. ALLOCATION FOR EARLY AUCTIONS.Subtitle B--Annual Auctions
SEC. 3201. ALLOCATION FOR ANNUAL AUCTIONS.Subtitle C--Early Action
SEC. 3301. ALLOCATION.
SEC. 3302. DISTRIBUTION.Subtitle D--States
SEC. 3401. ALLOCATION FOR ENERGY SAVINGS.
SEC. 3402. ALLOCATION FOR STATES WITH PROGRAMS THAT EXCEED FEDERAL EMISSION REDUCTION TARGETS.
SEC. 3403. GENERAL ALLOCATION.Subtitle E--Electricity Consumers
SEC. 3501. ALLOCATION.
SEC. 3502. DISTRIBUTION.
SEC. 3503. USE.
SEC. 3504. REPORTING.Subtitle F--Bonus Allowances for Carbon Capture and Geological Sequestration
SEC. 3601. ALLOCATION.
SEC. 3602. QUALIFYING PROJECTS.
SEC. 3603. DISTRIBUTION.
SEC. 3604. 10-YEAR LIMIT.
SEC. 3605. EXHAUSTION OF BONUS ALLOWANCE ACCOUNT.Subtitle G--Domestic Agriculture and Forestry
SEC. 3701. ALLOCATION.
SEC. 3702. AGRICULTURAL AND FORESTRY GREENHOUSE GAS MANAGEMENT RESEARCH.
SEC. 3703. DISTRIBUTION.Subtitle H--International Forest Protection
SEC. 3801. FINDINGS.
SEC. 3802. DEFINITION OF FOREST CARBON ACTIVITIES.
SEC. 3803. ALLOCATION.
SEC. 3804. DEFINITION AND ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS.
SEC. 3805. INTERNATIONAL FOREST CARBON ACTIVITIES.
SEC. 3806. REVIEWS AND DISCOUNT.Subtitle I--Covered Facilities
SEC. 3901. ALLOCATION.
SEC. 3902. DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM.
SEC. 3903. DISTRIBUTING EMISSION ALLOWANCES WITHIN THE ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR.
SEC. 3904. DISTRIBUTING EMISSION ALLOWANCES WITHIN THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR.TITLE IV--AUCTIONS AND USES OF AUCTION PROCEEDSSubtitle A--Funds
SEC. 4101. ESTABLISHMENT.
SEC. 4102. AMOUNTS IN FUNDS.
SEC. 4103. TRANSFERS TO FUNDS.Subtitle B--Climate Change Credit Corporation
SEC. 4201. ESTABLISHMENT.
SEC. 4202. APPLICABLE LAWS.
SEC. 4203. BOARD OF DIRECTORS.Subtitle C--Auctions
SEC. 4301. EARLY AUCTIONS.
SEC. 4302. ANNUAL AUCTIONS.Subtitle D--Energy Technology Deployment
SEC. 4401. IN GENERAL.
SEC. 4402. ZERO- OR LOW-CARBON ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES DEPLOYMENT.
SEC. 4403. ADVANCED COAL AND SEQUESTRATION TECHNOLOGIES PROGRAM.
SEC. 4404. FUEL FROM CELLULOSIC BIOMASS.
SEC. 4405. ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY VEHICLES MANUFACTURING INCENTIVE PROGRAM.Subtitle E--Energy Consumers
SEC. 4501. PROPORTIONS OF FUNDING AVAILABILITY.
SEC. 4502. RURAL ENERGY ASSISTANCE PROGRAM.Subtitle F--Climate Change Worker Training Program
SEC. 4601. FUNDING.
SEC. 4602. PURPOSES.
SEC. 4603. ESTABLISHMENT.
SEC. 4604. GRANTS TO STATES.
SEC. 4605. TYPES OF ASSISTANCE.Subtitle G--Adaptation Program for Natural Resources in United States and Territories
SEC. 4701. DEFINITIONS.
SEC. 4702. ADAPTATION FUND.Subtitle H--Climate Change and National Security Program
SEC. 4801. INTERAGENCY CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL.
SEC. 4802. FUNDING.Subtitle I--Audits
SEC. 4901. REVIEW AND AUDIT BY COMPTROLLER GENERAL OF THE UNITED STATES.TITLE V--ENERGY EFFICIENCYSubtitle A--Appliance Efficiency
SEC. 5101. RESIDENTIAL BOILERS.
SEC. 5102. REGIONAL VARIATIONS IN HEATING OR COOLING STANDARDS.Subtitle B--Building Efficiency
SEC. 5201. UPDATING STATE BUILDING ENERGY EFFICIENCY CODES.
`SEC. 304. UPDATING STATE BUILDING ENERGY EFFICIENCY CODES.
SEC. 5202. CONFORMING AMENDMENT.TITLE VI--GLOBAL EFFORT TO REDUCE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
SEC. 6001. DEFINITIONS.
SEC. 6002. PURPOSES.
SEC. 6003. INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATIONS.
SEC. 6004. INTERAGENCY REVIEW.
SEC. 6005. PRESIDENTIAL DETERMINATIONS.
SEC. 6006. INTERNATIONAL RESERVE ALLOWANCE PROGRAM.
SEC. 6007. ADJUSTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL RESERVE ALLOWANCE REQUIREMENTS.TITLE VII--REVIEWS
SEC. 7001. NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES REVIEW.
SEC. 7002. TRANSPORTATION SECTOR REVIEW.
SEC. 7003. ADAPTATION REVIEW.TITLE VIII--FRAMEWORK FOR GEOLOGICAL SEQUESTRATION OF CARBON DIOXIDE
SEC. 8001. NATIONAL DRINKING WATER REGULATIONS.
SEC. 8002. ASSESSMENT OF GEOLOGICAL STORAGE CAPACITY FOR CARBON DIOXIDE.
SEC. 8003. STUDY OF THE FEASIBILITY RELATING TO CONSTRUCTION OF PIPELINES AND GEOLOGICAL CARBON DIOXIDE SEQUESTRATION ACTIVITIES.
SEC. 8004. LIABILITIES FOR CLOSED GEOLOGICAL STORAGE SITES.TITLE IX--MISCELLANEOUS
SEC. 9001. PARAMOUNT INTEREST WAIVER.
SEC. 9002. CORPORATE ENVIRONMENTAL DISCLOSURE OF CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS.
SEC. 9003. ADMINISTRATIVE PROCEDURE AND JUDICIAL REVIEW.
SEC. 9004. RETENTION OF STATE AUTHORITY.
SEC. 9005. TRIBAL AUTHORITY.
SEC. 9006. AUTHORIZATION OF APPROPRIATIONS.